This is a disaster in the making. Policies going forward, whether or not to perform major intervention (temporary nationalization) in particular, hinge on an honest accounting of just how insolvent some of these "too big to fail" institutions really are. Using less than drastic forecasts as the metric guarantees too small a response.Okay, unemployment will almost certainly reach 8.0 percent and possibly 8.1 percent in February. It might cross 8.5 percent in March. The worst case scenario is that it hits 8.9 percent by the rest of the year?
Remember, this is the same crew that told us that there was no housing bubble. When it became clear that there were serious problems, they assured us that they would be contained in the subprime market. After Bears Stearn collapsed they told us that they didn't see another Bear Stearns out there.
These stress tests indicate that our economic policy makers are still in a serious state of denial. Why isn't the media ridiculing them and telling the public that the folks making economic policy still don't understand the economy.
February 26, 2009
Dean Baker Sounds Disgusted
The bank stress tests are rigged:
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