March 5, 2009
Crybabies
(Embed slaughters my page, so here is the link. Do watch, its damned funny)
Epic fucking win.
March 4, 2009
Shrill?
Turns out, they weren't so shrill at all:
The essence of this document was to declare that George Bush had the authority (a) to deploy the U.S. military inside the U.S., (b) directed at foreign nationals and U.S. citizens alike; (c) unconstrained by any Constitutional limits, including those of the First, Fourth and Fifth Amendments. It was nothing less than an explicit decree that, when it comes to Presidential power, the Bill of Rights was suspended, even on U.S. soil and as applied to U.S. citizens. And it wasn't only a decree that existed in theory; this secret proclamation that the Fourth Amendment was inapplicable to what the document calls "domestic military operations" was, among other things, the basis on which Bush ordered the NSA, an arm of the U.S. military, to turn inwards and begin spying -- in secret and with no oversight -- on the electronic communications (telephone calls and emails) of U.S. citizens on U.S. soil.
That the U.S. Government had suspended the Fourth Amendment itself isn't exactly news. A fleeting reference to that event (largely ignored by the media) was made in a footnote to one of Yoo's previously released torture memos (release of which was also compelled not by the U.S. Congress or the media, but by the ACLU). But reading the document that actually effectuated (in secret) that suspension -- released only yesterday -- is genuinely breathtaking.
Entire article should be read to get a start on wrapping your fragile, eggshell mind around this. Click the small photo files and read the actual verbiage - it is hair raising shit.
February 26, 2009
Dean Baker Sounds Disgusted
This is a disaster in the making. Policies going forward, whether or not to perform major intervention (temporary nationalization) in particular, hinge on an honest accounting of just how insolvent some of these "too big to fail" institutions really are. Using less than drastic forecasts as the metric guarantees too small a response.Okay, unemployment will almost certainly reach 8.0 percent and possibly 8.1 percent in February. It might cross 8.5 percent in March. The worst case scenario is that it hits 8.9 percent by the rest of the year?
Remember, this is the same crew that told us that there was no housing bubble. When it became clear that there were serious problems, they assured us that they would be contained in the subprime market. After Bears Stearn collapsed they told us that they didn't see another Bear Stearns out there.
These stress tests indicate that our economic policy makers are still in a serious state of denial. Why isn't the media ridiculing them and telling the public that the folks making economic policy still don't understand the economy.
February 20, 2009
The Crisis of Credit Visualized
The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.
February 13, 2009
Let's Get Swedish On Their Ass!
Nationalization -- call it "receivership" if that sounds more palatable -- won't be easy, but here is a set of principles for the government to go by:
First, and this is by far the toughest step, determine which banks are insolvent. Geithner's stress test would be helpful here. The government should start with the big banks that have outside debt, and it must determine which are solvent and which aren't in one fell swoop to avoid panic. Otherwise, bringing down one big bank will start an immediate run on the equity and long-term debt of the others. It will be a rough ride, but the regulators must stay strong.Second, immediately nationalize insolvent institutions. The equity-holders will be wiped out, and long-term debt-holders will have claims only after the depositors and other short-term creditors are paid off.
Third, once an institution is taken over, separate its assets into good and bad ones. The bad assets would be valued at current (albeit depressed) values. Again, as in Geithner's plan, private capital could purchase a fraction of those bad assets. As for the good assets, they would go private again, either through an IPO or a sale to a strategic buyer.
The proceeds from both these bad and good assets would first go to depositors and then to debt-holders, with some possible sharing with the government to cover administrative costs. If the depositors are paid off in full, then the government actually breaks even.
Fourth, merge all the remaining bad assets into one enterprise. The assets could be held to maturity or eventually sold off with the gains and risks accruing to the taxpayers.
The eventual outcome would be a healthy financial system with many new banks capitalized by good assets. Insolvent, too-big-to-fail banks would be broken up into smaller pieces less likely to threaten the whole financial system. Regulatory reforms also would be instituted to reduce the chances of costly future crises.
The longer the delay, the higher the actual costs. Not to mention the entire collapse thing. Standing on some ridiculous notion of ideological purity at this late date is exactly equivalent to insanity.
February 10, 2009
Market Case For Nationalization
In the case of the large banks, I assume that we do not want them to go bankrupt not because it would hurt their shareholders, but because their bankruptcy would have broader systemic effects that we find unacceptable. That's fine. But in figuring out what to do about that fact, we need to try to preserve the incentives that bankruptcy normally provides.
To my mind, this means that we should proceed as follows. First, figure out exactly what it is that makes letting these firms declare insolvency such a bad idea: what effects we are trying to avoid. Second, try to craft a policy that avoids this particular bad consequence, while leaving the other disincentives to go bankrupt (or to invest in firms that are at risk of bankruptcy) in place. Third, if we can't do that, try hard to create incentives that mimic the operation of the normal market incentives that our actions are preventing. (E.g., if we prevent banks from declaring insolvency, we need to provide some other disincentive to becoming insolvent, in order to avoid moral hazard.)
This is the main reason why I tend to favor nationalizing those banks that are insolvent, clearing up their balance sheets, recapitalizing them as needed, and sending them back into the private markets as soon as is prudent. I am not, in general, in favor of the government controlling individual banks. But in this case, if we don't want to let the large banks declare bankruptcy, we need to provide some serious disincentives to their managers, investors, and bondholders. (I exempt depositors since I think that they should be insured, given the systemic value of avoiding bank runs.)
Nationalization would accomplish that. It would wipe out the shareholders and holders of unsecured debt, which is what the market would have done if left to its own devices. It would allow us to replace the senior management at the banks, which would give them every incentive to avoid needing to be nationalized. We would need to own the banks in order to do what needs to be done, and to do it as quickly as possible. This would mimic the market by treating the government as an owner in those cases in which it is, in fact, putting up the money: anyone else who provided this sort of capital would get ownership, and making an exception for the government would make government money more attractive than private capital. This would, I think, be a bad thing.
Nationalization would, in short, accomplish what my market principles tell me we should do: specify exactly what the bad consequence is that we want to avoid, and craft a policy solution that avoids this particular bad thing while either leaving other market signals intact or (where this is impossible) mimicking them. It would also allow us to return to what I take to be the right state of affairs (in which banks are private, and privately funded, and the government regulates them) as quickly as possible. (If you don't like excessive government involvement in banking, it's not clear why you'd prefer a long, drawn-out period of heavy government involvement over a shorter period of outright nationalization.)
This isn't rocket science. Models exist which can provide a blueprint for how to proceed. The only limiting factors in all of this are political and ideological. Our current crop of politician's fear the word "nationalization" almost as much as they fear openly contested elections.
February 9, 2009
Tech Shit You Gotta Have
Sony Releases New Stupid Piece Of Shit That Doesn't Fucking Work
February 6, 2009
Rallying The Troops
In two parts:
We Don't Need No Stinkin' Stimulus
7.6% unemployment.
And U6 is now at 13.6%.
In this environment Republican intransigence becomes a criminal conspiracy, even if it is born of stupid adherence to a failed ideology.
February 5, 2009
When cops become soldiers
The Supremes need to have another look at this sort of crap.
Just ask the Mayor of Berwyn Heights, MD.
In the mean time, protect your dogs.
In the kitchen, Georgia spun to face the sound of the splintering door. Men in black burst through the front door and into the living room.
Georgia stood trembling in front of the kitchen stove. Payton, who had been stretched out in a corner of the living room farthest from the front door, his head resting near the threshold to the kitchen "turned toward the front door when I turned," Georgia recalled. "He didn't have time to do anything else." Almost instantly, men in black ran forward and shot Payton in the face, Georgia said. "They kept shooting," she recalled. "I didn't know how many times they shot Payton because there was so much gunfire."
"Down on the ground!" Georgia recalled someone screaming at her. She was too terrified to move.
Chase, always timid even when there was nothing to fear, did what he did best -- he ran. He ran away from the men in black, zipped past Georgia at the stove, Georgia recalled. The screaming, running men followed Chase, shooting as he tried escaping into the dining room, Georgia said. She watched in horror as men in black rushed the dining room from all directions. "I could hear Chase whimpering," Georgia said. Then she heard someone shoot at Chase again, she said.
Men kept yelling at Georgia to get down, but she couldn't budge. "Somebody pushed me on the ground, and they put a gun to my head," she said. Face down on the kitchen floor, Georgia felt someone yank her hands behind her, rip the spoon away and secure her hands. When she lifted her eyes, she could just see Payton's big head resting near the kitchen threshold. He wasn't moving.
February 4, 2009
Not So Deep Thought
The Just Say No Crowd
Out of power, it looks like this:
In the midst of an economic crisis, the GOP and its allies have convinced a whole lot of people that the only sensible recovery plan is a bad idea. The minority party has not only persuaded news outlets to give them airtime to spew this obviously-ridiculous nonsense, they've also convinced a lot of media figures that they're right.I do wonder if they have any clear idea of the potential, even likely consequences of doing nothing about the imminent global economic collapse, already well in progress. If they do, then their actions are criminal. If they don't, then we are in deep deep trouble.
February 3, 2009
Boys Will Be Girls & Girls Will Be Boys
Some years ago a friend wanted to buy a new television. I was, at the time, still in the audio/video business and recommended an establishment I once worked for, as my current employer did not sell TVs.
I am male. My friend is female, employed, makes boatloads of money, and is the primary earner in her household (husband takes care of the kids and home).
We three journeyed to the electronics store (a higher end place, where the salespeople actually know what they are selling) where I introduced my friend to the store manager, told him generally what she was looking for, and off we went. Understand that this manager was a younger man, 26 at the time (and a rank asshole to his staff but sophisticated enough to treat his customers with respect, or so I thought), so we are not dealing with some dinosaur likely to pop off about the "little lady" and whatnot. Yet, invariably, he spoke directly to the husband, or even me, though both of us made a point of standing a little further back from him than was she. It was weird. I deflected everything back to her, as did her husband, but he continued making eye contact with either of the men while ignoring her, even though she was the only one asking him questions or responding verbally to him.
When we reached the register, J. took out her wallet and began dating a check. The manager looked right past her to her husband and asked for their phone number. He looked away, and the manager's gaze finally came to rest on his wife. She gave him the number, lips pursed, expression galactically irritated. When the transaction ended, he handed the receipt to her husband, who was several feet away from the counter. The guy had to extend his arm right over her shoulder to do it.
On the ride home she was understandably livid. I was pretty embarrassed, as I had recommended this guy and that shop, and said so. While I received absolution for my unintentional sin, she never returned to that particular establishment. For my part I wrote a letter to the sales manager of the company (someone I knew personally) advising him of the incredibly sexist behavior of the current manager. Nothing happened, as far as I know.
In years since I've seen this sort of thing over and over again. I've even seen female sales staff defer to the male partner when a married couple is buying something, even if there are no overt signs that one or the other person is "taking the lead" in the purchase, so to speak. It's incredibly insulting to women, and all too common.
January 23, 2009
January 16, 2009
Preserve, protect, and defend
Paul Krugman reminds us why we cannot allow that to happen.
Let’s be clear what we’re talking about here. It’s not just torture and illegal wiretapping, whose perpetrators claim, however implausibly, that they were patriots acting to defend the nation’s security. The fact is that the Bush administration’s abuses extended from environmental policy to voting rights. And most of the abuses involved using the power of government to reward political friends and punish political enemies.
January 12, 2009
Teh stoopid, it spreadz
Heh heh.
"Teach the controversy".
HAHAHAHAHA!
Oklahoma was one of the few states that went more Republican in the latest election (McCain pulled his highest vote percentage in any state here), with the Retro-dumbass party securing both houses for, I believe (correct me Jim, if I am wrong) the first time in state history.
And right out of the gate, they fail to disappoint.
Creationism by every other name.
Living in the reality based community is fraught with difficulties. One of them is not taking the bait when legislation like that is proposed. I suppose it is my fault for believing that the entire creationism debate as it relates to public schools is settled law. It is, but apparently that doesn't matter to the forces of know-nothingism.
The anti-evolution legislative pushes are particularly annoying because they are, at heart, so profoundly dishonest. In the guise of presenting a legitimate alternate scientific theory to challenge the enormous body of work that makes up Darwinian theory we get proposed laws that would enforce a religious orthodoxy on school children. It is obviously done in the service of a wider effort to subvert public institutions in the name of a Christianist political attempt to remake our country in their likeness. Legislators who engagfe in this sort of behavior are, to my mind, wholly illegitimate.
It is cowardly. If those Christianist ideas are so valid, then come out in the open, propose legislation that really endorses those views, that this country ought to be ordered on principles conceived primarily through a ridiculously selective, literalist reading of the bible. I recall reading a Catholic writer some time ago saying, and I paraphrase, "the Bible is the Word of God, not the words of God". If a government that rigidly follows a specific reading of the bible is so right and just, then package that legislation appropriately, and let's have the discussion they want to have and do so out in the open. Advocate for theocracy, state the case, have the debate.
It would bring this nonsense to a very quick close. Which is exactly why we have this sort of clumsy, but frightening thought control legislation instead, because its proponents know they have a losing argument otherwise.
January 5, 2009
To The Gallows!
Failing that sort of radical, outsize (and dubious) remedy, here is Michael Lewis with a pair of fine articles detailing where the failure points are, and how to repair them:
THERE are other things the Treasury might do when a major financial firm assumed to be “too big to fail” comes knocking, asking for free money. Here’s one: Let it fail.The entire thing is worth reading, and part two can be reached from the end of part one.
Not as chaotically as Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail. If a failing firm is deemed “too big” for that honor, then it should be explicitly nationalized, both to limit its effect on other firms and to protect the guts of the system. Its shareholders should be wiped out, and its management replaced. Its valuable parts should be sold off as functioning businesses to the highest bidders — perhaps to some bank that was not swept up in the credit bubble. The rest should be liquidated, in calm markets. Do this and, for everyone except the firms that invented the mess, the pain will likely subside.
This is more plausible than it may sound. Sweden, of all places, did it successfully in 1992. And remember, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have already accepted, on behalf of the taxpayer, just about all of the downside risk of owning the bigger financial firms. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve would both no doubt argue that if you don’t prop up these banks you risk an enormous credit contraction — if they aren’t in business who will be left to lend money? But something like the reverse seems more true: propping up failed banks and extending them huge amounts of credit has made business more difficult for the people and companies that had nothing to do with creating the mess. Perfectly solvent companies are being squeezed out of business by their creditors precisely because they are not in the Treasury’s fold. With so much lending effectively federally guaranteed, lenders are fleeing anything that is not.
Rather than tackle the source of the problem, the people running the bailout desperately want to reinflate the credit bubble, prop up the stock market and head off a recession. Their efforts are clearly failing: 2008 was a historically bad year for the stock market, and we’ll be in recession for some time to come. Our leaders have framed the problem as a “crisis of confidence” but what they actually seem to mean is “please pay no attention to the problems we are failing to address.”
December 18, 2008
Coherence
Barack Obama has always claimed his religious faith is one of the most important things in his life, and essential to his identity. It's therefore all the more disappointing that his choice of Rick Warren reflects a particularly American brand of incoherence and hypocrisy when it comes to public displays of supposed religious belief.Read the entire post - well worth it.
The incoherence is reflected by behavior -- such as choosing Warren to give the invocation -- that seems to affirm two propositions:
(1) Religious beliefs are enormously important.
(2) The actual content of those beliefs is irrelevant.
December 3, 2008
Concussion
I had recently thought of it as being beaten about the head and shoulders with a wad of conservative talking points.
Or what happens if you are actually brave enough to watch an entire hour of Bill O'Reilly's hate fest on Faux Newz.
No longer.
Yesterday while crushing down a bunch of left over cardboard boxes in our garage, I stepped on one that has that lovely waxy sheen over pretty colors advertising some product crucial to everyday life (in this case a mat that goes under a desk chair) and personally redefined concussion to something akin to its medical meaning.
That slick, shiny box flew out from under my feet and I went momentarily airborne, levitating horizontally above the hard concrete floor of the garage for what seemed like a full second to my time-dilated senses. I could envision in that long interregnum exactly what took place next: my butt, then my back, then neck and finally my head hit the floor with a truly sickening *thwock* noise, the kind of sound that makes the stomach churn just to hear it.
I lost just a hint of time after impact, until I became aware that my seizure response dog, Rufus, was frantically licking my face and covering my body with his. When later asked by the doctor if I had lost consciousness, I tentatively said yes, then measured the period missing by the amount of dog slobber I was covered in, which, fortunately, was not much. Perhaps a minute, likely even less time passed before I was aware that my head really fucking hurt, got the dog off me, and tried to regain my feet. I was horribly dizzy and my vision blurred. My head was completely numb and a large knot was already forming on the top part of the back of the skull. I was nauseous for a few minutes.
I had a phone with me (habit when outside or in the garage for any length of time) so called Rachel. I'd be hard pressed to recall what exactly I said to her, but she lit out from work right away. The fact I was able to stand and talk seemed reason enough not to call 911 and all that entails.
We went to St. John's Urgent Care which is associated with my doctor in the same complex. I was the only person there, so they got me in quickly. Medical history, poking and prodding, lots of questions, Darvocet and Flexeril, a neck brace plus X-rays followed, along with a lot of waiting around. Thanks to the brief period of unconsciousness I not only had to have the X-rays but also a CT scan. Though they had a machine there, it was not operated after 5pm so I was out of luck. Off we went to St. Francis Hospital emergency center.
The ER in any hospital is always a somewhat alarming place. I've been in a couple for my own medical problems and to take others for theirs. The worst was probably the night my friend Chris R. drove his 1970's era Lincoln ocean liner into a telephone pole in Virginia, breaking his nose and collar bone (annihilating both car and pole - the latter only stayed standing thanks to the heavy. demolished car still holding it upright). Marty and I were there for many an hour as Chris slept, passed out despite the pain of his nose and collar bone, as the ER doctors ran tests and also dealt with a more lethal car crash that came bursting through the doors after we arrived. That night also included the delicious irony of Chris being essentially let off the hook for a certain DUI by the improbably named Officer Bacon of the Fairfax police, something I've laughed about over the years whenever this particular incident comes up.
St. Francis wasn't terribly busy, though there was a decent crowd in the waiting room. I got checked in for the CT, waited, and was called in under 5 minutes. We were taken to a trauma room, seen by a nurse (where my blood pressure and temperature were taken for the second, though not last time for the night), had to recount the details of the fall yet again, then were made to wait. Rachel and I listened to the flow of chatter around us as nurses and the ER doctor attended to other patients. Judging by discussions amongst staff about visitors coming and going, there seemed to be either a lot of new people on rotation or a recent policy change concerning who could or should accompany a patient into the ER area.
Eventually the doctor stopped by, looked over my chart, assured me the wait for the CT would not be long but the time before it could be read might be, thanks to a shift change in progress. A little while later a nurse stuck her head in, asked if I was there for the CT. An affirmative response prompted her to ask us if we could wait at the end of the hall in the small seating area there. I said yes, then, as she walked away, I saw a woman who had previously been vomiting noisily in another room collapse into the hallway and onto the floor. The nurse didn't see her, so I said "excuse me" loud enough to be heard, and pointed to the prone body "That woman has collapsed". She called for help and went to attend to her. We moved to the end of the hall, where I was called shortly for the CT.
Being an epileptic I am more than familiar with the joys of CT and MRI machines. The latter are a particular favorite of mine. Trapped head first in a cool plastic and metal cocoon, head caged in place, with barely enough room for my shoulders and arms to lie in a relaxed state, I am bombarded by the weird post-techno beat of the machine as it produces high resolution slices of my broken brain. It is an entrancing, ever changing symphony of differently pitched knocks, hums, and repetitive low frequency tones and warbles most likely recreated in the outside world by a spastic child and an old ARP 2600 synthesizer. The earplugs prevent hearing damage, but nothing can drown out the sheer volume of the bone jarring trance generator that performs as a side effect of the near-magical workings of the MRI. Every time I'm in one of these monstrosities I totally zone out to the unique bursts of machine music.
Of course, I wasn't scheduled for an MRI. :)
The CT took about five minutes. A full MRI of the brain lasts anywhere from 30 minutes to a full hour, so I was pleased and relieved. It was also cool to be able to see the imaging elements spinning rapidly over head. More visually entertaining than the spare white plastic tube of the MRI.
It all came up clean, of course. The doctor at urgent care was pretty certain it would turn out that way, as was I, after the initial shock and pain of the fall had subsided. The short span of unconsciousness, the nausea, and the blurred vision combined to force the doctor, as a cautionary procedure, to order the extra tests. The necessity of it all doesn't in any way blunt the mind numbing waiting that accompanies any trip to the ER, unless you are mortally injured or in some other way in danger of immediate death or permanent harm. That waiting is punctuated by the blood pressure machine puffing up on my arm and restricting the flow of blood to my hand every ten minutes, by the bodiless pronouncements coming from the PA (including a recorded voice issuing a prayer for the hospital, its visitors, staff and patients as visiting hours came to a close), and the sporadic visits from nurses, hospital staff or the doctor.
That waiting time left me to wonder about the disposable nature of so many things in the hospital chain - even fingertip pulse takers have been made disposable, with the electronics embedded in flexible plastic, fitted over the finger, and plugged into a monitor. I understand about issues of sterility, but that seemed especially wasteful. The amount of trash generated by any given hospital in a single day must be enormous. And each time will appear in a full accounting of my little trip through the belly of the medical beast.
I can't wait for the bills for my portion to arrive.
Today my neck is stiff as the cardboard that tried to kill me, and my back, a chronic source of pain and trouble, is protesting most loudly about my garage escapade. The minor cognitive oddities that dogged me last night have passed completely, so all that is left is to heal the muscles of my neck and back, and I am honestly thankful I got away without a major injury.
The sound of my skull bouncing off the concrete will stay with me for the rest of my life.
So I'm whole, but concussed.
November 27, 2008
Talk About Torture
Glenn Greenwald cuts through the bullshit:
All of this underscores a crucial fact: a major reason why the Bush administration was able to break numerous laws in general, and subject detainees to illegal torture specifically, is because the media immediately mimicked the Orwellian methods adopted by the administration to speak about and obfuscate these matters. Objective propositions that were never in dispute and cannot be reasonably disputed were denied by the Bush administration, and -- for that reason alone (one side says it's true) -- the media immediately depicted these objective facts as subject to reasonable dispute.
Hence: "war crimes" were transformed into "policy disputes" between hawkish defenders of the country and shrill, soft-on-terror liberals. "Torture" became "enhanced interrogation techniques which critics call torture." And, most of all, flagrant lawbreaking -- doing X when the law says: "X is a felony" -- became acting "pursuant to robust theories of executive power" or "expansive interpretations of statutes and treaties" or, at worst, "in circumvention of legal frameworks."
* * * * *
All of that is what has created the warped Beltway consensus that Bush officials who broke the law, committed war crimes and other felonies, should be absolutely immunized from the consequences of their crimes. That's because when government officials commit "crimes," they're not actually crimes -- they're mere "policy disputes among people in good faith." Only "incendiary" liberals believe that government officials who break the law should be subject to accusations as shrill and extreme as: "they committed crimes."
A further interesting point is this one, made by Jonathan Turley on the Rachel Maddow show. Turley points out that the Bush administrations murmurs that pardons are unnecessary because the Justice Department torture memos sufficiently cover anyone who then participated in such actions from legal liability in fact calls the Democrats bluff on this issue:
TURLEY: What the administration is doing is they know that the people that want him to pardon our torture program is primarily the Democrats, not the Republicans. The Democratic leadership would love to have a pardon so they could go to their supporters and say, “Look, there’s really nothing we could do.”I think this is about accurate. Those in power are predisposed to aid one another when it comes to questions of legality and liability. In this case, it is pathetic that the alleged beacon of democracy is less inclined then a third world country recently out from under the boot of brutal dictatorship to prosecute its own leaders for actions that are clearly, without question, war crimes.
Well, the Bush administration is calling their bluff. They know that the Democratic leadership will not allow criminal investigations or indictments.